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Market Talk – July 27th, 2015
July 27, 2015
Given the flight to quality in the bond market and the Fed in play this week, today’s curve move tells the picture. We saw 2 yrs better by 2bp (0.65%) whilst 5 yrs were lower by 5bp and 10’s by 4bp...
ECB, Monetarism And A Greek Half-Decade
June 29, 2015
The ECB has thrown everything orthodoxy could conceive, under the rules of rational expectations and its twin alchemy, monetary neutrality, and still, five years later, depression and default and...
While Greek negotiations captured the attention of the media, the big shift in trend is the sell-off of Chinese stock indices with the Shanghai composite down 7.4% on Friday bringing losses to 19%...
Carnage Continues: EU Equity Futures Crash 7%, Bund Yields Plunge 20bps, Italy/Spain Bonds Dumped
June 28, 2015
It appears Greece matters after all - US futures are tumbling, Japanese stocks are tanking (as JPY is bid on mass carry unwinds), Chinese stocks are limit down and collapsing..
The first tremors emerged when Greece announced it would not present a new proposal to the Eurogroup to unlock aid, relying instead on what has already been submitted and which the Troika said was...
The US dollar began the new week bid in Asia, but surrendered most of those initial gains before the start of the European session.
Financial Review: Understanding Global Banking
June 11, 2015
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon isn’t sure Sen. Elizabeth Warren understands how banking works. Warren is a Senate Banking Committee member, who has challenged the size of large lenders and their...
Financial Review: Rotate This
June 10, 2015
The yield on 10-year German government bunds broke above 1% overnight for the first time since September 2014; part of a broader global bond sell-off that’s been deepening since late April.
The dramatic sell-off in German bunds caught many investors off guard. The conventional wisdom, for which we too were sympathetic, was that there was going to be a shortage of bunds.
Bond Rout Continues: Bunds Rise Above 1%; 30Y "Golden Crossed"; Kuroda Sends Yen Soaring
June 10, 2015
The German bond move continues to reverberate in the US, where the 30 Year bond just experienced a yield "Golden Cross" after the 50-DMA touched 2.826%, exceeding the 200-DMA at 2.824%, for the first...
Volatility Explodes: China, Bunds Crash Then Smash; Dow, S&P500 Tumble Below Key Support Levels
June 04, 2015
When Draghi warned traders yesterday that "markets must get used to periods of higher volatility" boy was he not kidding.
If The Fed/ECB's plans were to shake out some of the extreme positioning in markets, it is succeeding but they are losing grip on any control of this chaos.
Virtually every single capital market has become an illiquid penny stock, with wild swings from one extreme to the other, the latest example of this being the Shanghai Composite which after soaring 10%...
Buy Yellen and sell Draghi, the relative value probability tables seem to be saying, and this might not just be the trade of the next few years, but perhaps the trade of a generation.
The US dollar is broadly higher as yesterday's gains are extended. The euro had approached $1.15 before the weekend.
Futures Make Further Record Gains On Bad Economic Data, Lack Of Volume, News And Bund Selling
May 15, 2015
While mutual fund and ETF flows continue to exit equity fund, stocks maintain their lower volume levitation, with S&P futures printing at new record highs this morning, as Europe rises on another...
Bund Bounce Helps Dollar Stabilize
May 15, 2015
The US dollar is enjoying firmer tone as the week winds down. It is up against all the major currencies but the Norwegian krone today.
Bonds were sold off globally. Demand for bonds dropped and, as a consequence, their price has gone down. Because yields move in the opposite direction of bond prices, have recently gone up again.
Creating The Bond Bubble – Role Of The Stock Market
May 13, 2015
There is a traditional risk of a correction in the share market that could set off the final stage of the bond bubble. Keep in mind this is not going to materialize in the long-end of bonds/bunds.
Yields Are Collapsing On Short-End
May 12, 2015
The amount of cash rushing around on the short-end is stunning. Yields are collapsing into negative territory and this is the same flight to quality we began to see at the peak in the crisis back in...
German Bond Yields…
May 12, 2015
Yields have been suppressed in part because of the deflation threat and flight to quality, as countries within the Eurozone (mainly Greece) struggle to stay afloat.
Economic data and political developments drove currencies, especially in the USA, Germany and Great Britain.
The German Bunds (Chart)
May 09, 2015
The German Bunds – Can’t Wait
May 08, 2015
Once the Bunds broken through the 15620 level, the crash began to move down rapidly to the next Weekly Bearish and the first Monthly Bearish Reversals.
Whipsaw Wednesday – The Wild Ride Continues
May 06, 2015
There are plenty of opportunities to make money off the up and down action, like the call I made yesterday, right in the morning post, to short the S&P Futures at 2,105, which paid $1,150 per contract...
PIMCO Steps Into the ETF Fee War
September 17, 2014
In a rare occurrence, PIMCO cut the expense ratio on one of its actively managed exchange traded funds, revealing the stiff competition in the ETF space, even for an established fixed-income giant. In...
From ETF Trends
PIMCO to Shutter Four ETFs, Add Three New Funds
August 18, 2014
PIMCO, the eleventh-largest U.S. issuer of exchange traded funds, said four of its ETFs will be closed in September, but the asset manager plans to add three new actively managed ETFs to its lineup....
From ETF Trends