In yesterday's post, I pointed out that, according to FactSet, consensus S&P 500 EPS estimates had dropped about -0.50 across the board over the last three weeks (see 2020 is over, what's the next pain trade?).
The decline turned out to be a data anomaly. A closer examination of the evolution of consensus estimates revealed a sudden drop in EPS estimates three weeks ago. Discontinuous changes like that are highly unusual, and it was traced to the inclusion of heavyweight Tesla in the S&P 500. In this case, analyzing the evolution of consensus earnings before and after the Tesla inclusion was not an apples-to-apples comparison. My previous bearish conclusion should therefore be discounted.
Nevertheless, I am becoming tactically cautious about the stock market despite resolving this data anomaly.
The full post can be found here.